Blog · 17 February 2026
Read Cohorts Before You Stretch the Forecast
A short practice for checking whether newer cohorts can carry the revenue curve you are about to promise.
Forecasts that assume last year’s cohort shape will continue often break when onboarding, pricing, or channel mix changes. Compare recent signup cohorts on revenue per user at the same age before extending the curve.
If the newest cohorts underperform early, stretch targets later—not sooner. Document the sample size so leadership understands confidence, not just ambition.
A forecast sanity check is not pessimism; it is protecting trust when the board pack ships.